Consolidation of the Rally Continues
March 28, 2008
Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:00 GMT
by Harry Boxer
The Technical Trader
The indices pulled back and ended lower on the session, but there was some intraday volatility.
The day started out with a gap lower as pre-market futures were down with housing data and several other economic reports sending the market lower in the morning. They had a three-wave decline to the lows for the day, testing yesterday's lows on the Nasdaq 100 and taking them out on the S&P 500 but holding secondary support. They then snapped back, taking back about a third of the declines, and then retested the lows by mid-afternoon, made a slightly higher low, and then had a very sharp snapback that saw the Nasdaq 100 jump from 1803 to 1823. The S&P went from 1337 to ,but that did not last. They then came down sharply ,but with about 15 minutes to go snapped back again, so you can see we had some late volatility. However, the late afternoon retest was successful, testing price and moving average support intraday, with the S&P 500 making a triple bottom of sorts.
Net on the day the Dow fell by nearly 110, the S&P 500 a little less than 12, and the Nasdaq 100 about 7 1/4. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down about 5 today.
The technicals were about 3 to 2 negative on advance-declines on New York and 4 to 3 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was more than 2 to 1 negative on New York, with a total there of under 1.5 billion traded. Nasdaq traded about 1.9 billion and had about a 2 1/2 to 1 negative ratio.
TheTechTrader.com board was mixed. On the plus side, Cree Inc. (CREE) was up 1.73 on rumors of a buyout by IBM. Converted Organics (COIN) snapped back sharply, up another 1.12, continuing its recent strong rebound, on 1.7 million shares. DryShips (DRYS) gained 1.14, and Ascent Solar (ASTI) was up 1.32 to 11.96.
CLWR closed up 80 cents on positive news, but that was nearly 1.65 off its earlier highs. Other stocks of note, JA Solar (JASO) was up 54 cents, but several others of the juniors solars were mixed today.
On the losing side, LEH lost another 2.72, Solarfun (SOLF) fell 1.19, WM, 1.20 to 11.50, and reverse oil instrument DCR, a portfolio position of ours, dropped 1.07 as the price of oil shot up back over $105 a barrel.
Other losses of note, Global Solutions (GSOL) lost 49 cents and MBI in a weak financial services fell 89 cents. Sigma Designs (SIGM) gave back 48 cents, and TBS International (TBSI) in the mixed shipping group was down 90 cents.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down hard in the morning, bounced around mid-day, rallied in mid-afternoon, and then backed off towards the end of the session to close with losses on the day.
But the key to today's session was that the rising moving averages on the hourly charts as well as lateral price support held. We'll see if that's meaningful or not, as the consolidation of the big run-up of the last few days continues, now 2 1/2 days into it.
Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:01 GMT
by Harry Boxer
The Technical Trader
The indices pulled back and ended lower on the session, but there was some intraday volatility.
The day started out with a gap lower as pre-market futures were down with housing data and several other economic reports sending the market lower in the morning. They had a three-wave decline to the lows for the day, testing yesterday's lows on the Nasdaq 100 and taking them out on the S&P 500 but holding secondary support. They then snapped back, taking back about a third of the declines, and then retested the lows by mid-afternoon, made a slightly higher low, and then had a very sharp snapback that saw the Nasdaq 100 jump from 1803 to 1823. The S&P went from 1337 to ,but that did not last. They then came down sharply ,but with about 15 minutes to go snapped back again, so you can see we had some late volatility. However, the late afternoon retest was successful, testing price and moving average support intraday, with the S&P 500 making a triple bottom of sorts.
Net on the day the Dow fell by nearly 110, the S&P 500 a little less than 12, and the Nasdaq 100 about 7 1/4. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down about 5 today.
The technicals were about 3 to 2 negative on advance-declines on New York and 4 to 3 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was more than 2 to 1 negative on New York, with a total there of under 1.5 billion traded. Nasdaq traded about 1.9 billion and had about a 2 1/2 to 1 negative ratio.
TheTechTrader.com board was mixed. On the plus side, Cree Inc. (CREE) was up 1.73 on rumors of a buyout by IBM. Converted Organics (COIN) snapped back sharply, up another 1.12, continuing its recent strong rebound, on 1.7 million shares. DryShips (DRYS) gained 1.14, and Ascent Solar (ASTI) was up 1.32 to 11.96.
CLWR closed up 80 cents on positive news, but that was nearly 1.65 off its earlier highs. Other stocks of note, JA Solar (JASO) was up 54 cents, but several others of the juniors solars were mixed today.
On the losing side, LEH lost another 2.72, Solarfun (SOLF) fell 1.19, WM, 1.20 to 11.50, and reverse oil instrument DCR, a portfolio position of ours, dropped 1.07 as the price of oil shot up back over $105 a barrel.
Other losses of note, Global Solutions (GSOL) lost 49 cents and MBI in a weak financial services fell 89 cents. Sigma Designs (SIGM) gave back 48 cents, and TBS International (TBSI) in the mixed shipping group was down 90 cents.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down hard in the morning, bounced around mid-day, rallied in mid-afternoon, and then backed off towards the end of the session to close with losses on the day.
But the key to today's session was that the rising moving averages on the hourly charts as well as lateral price support held. We'll see if that's meaningful or not, as the consolidation of the big run-up of the last few days continues, now 2 1/2 days into it.
Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:01 GMT
Labels: Markets, Technical Analysis
