Saham-saham Cina (diwakili oleh ETF FXI) sudah membentuk bearish trading pattern. Lihat Chart. Ciri-cirinya:

- Corridor down trend sudah terbentuk pada trading patternnya.

- Rally tidak diikuti oleh volume. Sedangkan koreksi diikuti dengan naiknya volume (investor buang barang!!!).

- Momentum nya terus melemah

Saya pikir sepanjang tahun 2008 nanti pasar saham Cina akan mengalami koreksi. Kenaikkan 90% selama tahun 2007 akan berbalik arah. Untuk Fib retracement 62% saja mungkin bisa tercapai dalam waktu dekat (Chart-2)

Selamat trading........

In 2007, the world's economy is once again likely to have produced robust growth of nearly 5%. Nevertheless, in light of rising energy prices, a renewed worsening of the situation in the financial markets, along with a continued correction in the American housing market, the risks to growth have once again increased - particularly for the US. Credit Suisse experts therefore believe the US will exhibit growth in real GDP of only 1.9 percent in 2008. The bank expects the US slowdown to have a dampening effect on growth in other regions as well. In the fast-growing economies (in particular China, the rest of Asia, but also selected countries in Latin America), however, these effects are unlikely to be as pronounced as in the past. Besides healthy investment prospects, high growth in employment and wages, together with rising equity markets and real estate prices, have strengthened domestic demand and in particular household spending.

Central Banks Face Growth as Well as Inflation Risks
Against the backdrop of increased risk to growth, Credit Suisse anticipates further, modest cuts in interest rates in the US. Nevertheless, the Fed's scope for cutting rates is likely to be constrained by the latent risk of inflation. While the Bank of England is likely to begin lowering rates in 2008, Credit Suisse analysts believe the European Central Bank will keep rates at the current level for the time being. The Swiss National Bank has repeatedly pointed to the inflationary risks posed by a depreciating Swiss franc. Given the greater volatility in the financial markets, these fears are unlikely to be compounded in the near term. For now, therefore, the threat of a further interest increase appears to have waned.

Dollar's Weakness Spreads to Asia
Central bank policy remains pivotal to the development of the US dollar. Against the backdrop of a US current account deficit that is financed almost exclusively by bonds, the marked narrowing of the dollar's interest-rate premium in the year now coming to an end is likely to put the greenback under further pressure. Nevertheless, European currencies such as the euro and pound sterling have risen well above parity. Over the coming year, a reversal of the transatlantic interest rate spread in the US dollar's direction could herald the start of a recovery for the currency. The Swiss franc is likely to possess further upside potential in the coming year. The financial market environment will in our view be characterized by more substantial exchange-rate fluctuations. The conditions for carry trades are therefore likely to become more challenging - hence the Swiss franc's potential to appreciate over the coming 12 months, not only against the euro but also against the pound. Investors with the Swiss franc as reference currency would therefore be well advised to hedge gains on their foreign currency positions.

Commodities: 2008 Should Be Another Strong Year
The onset of the US mortgage crisis heralded a significant change in the fundamental outlook for commodities. The dollar's subsequent weakness together with cuts in US interest rates have propelled prices of many commodities to new highs. This situation is likely to ensure commodity prices to go on rising in 2008, especially with the world economy likely to continue growing at a moderate pace. Nevertheless, in light of economic uncertainties in the US, investors will need to get used to the idea of more substantial fluctuations in prices for individual commodities and higher volatility in overall terms. In these circumstances, investing in commodity indices would appear an increasingly attractive option. In terms of individual commodities, it is gold and agricultural commodities that are likely to offer the greatest potential gains.

Real Estate: Cyclical Opportunities in Asia, Focus on Core Investments in Western Markets
2007 marked the turnaround in the real estate boom of the past years. The changing environment in the global credit markets should further impact the direct real estate markets in the quarters ahead. Temporarily diminishing capital flows are expected to cause capital values to stagnate or even decline in the months ahead. This applies above all for many Western markets with rich valuations, such as London and Madrid, where office yields have already started to shift outward again. We think that this trend is not over yet and discourage investors from opportunistic short-term investments in those markets. Over the medium term though, we expect robust capital flows into real estate to rebound and markets to deliver attractive total returns again. For the time being, we therefore recommend investors to concentrate on core investments that generate stable and strong rental income in the year ahead. Our preferred region for 2008 is Asia, where selected real estate markets are expected to offer robust performance in the commercial as well as the residential sectors. Among them, Singapore is our favorite for 2008.

Equity Markets Remain Attractive, but Greater Volatility to be expected
Global stock markets will enter the new year supported by attractive valuations. Credit Suisse's equity strategists expect positive stock-market returns for 2008, though persistent uncertainties regarding the tight situation in credit markets and US consumer spending are likely to ensure increased volatility in prices. Over a 12-month view, our preferred regions are Europe, Asia, and selected emerging markets. In the latter case, we favor markets with specific drivers: The Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong ("H shares") are benefiting from ample inflow of liquidity from Chinese private investors, while the Gulf states and Russia are beneficiaries of the persistently high oil price; meanwhile, Brazil is attractive due to strong growth in its exports to Asia. Within Europe, restructuring plans and recovering consumer demand offer sustained upside potential for Germany; the effects of this will also be supportive to markets in France and Switzerland.

Investing in Megatrends
Credit Suisse analysts continue to advise investors to invest in selected megatrends that are likely to play an important role in the medium term. Infrastructure, water, and alternative energy sources are still perceived as offering major potential thanks to global trends: A growing world population and increasing integration of countries like China and India into the world economy are likely to continue fueling demand for infrastructure and energy in the coming years. The consequent lasting increase in energy prices should continue to boost the attractions of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind. Drinking water is also becoming an increasingly scarce commodity due to a growing population and overuse, making vast investment in water infrastructure inevitable over the next few years. Technological advances such as those in nanotechnology are also likely to provide further investment opportunities.

Bonds: Short Maturities and Inflation-Protected bonds
With central banks weighing growth slowdown against rising prices, the trend toward a steeper yield curve - that is, a generally higher term premium - is likely to characterize much of 2008 on bond markets. Short to medium-dated maturities still appear appropriate in light of the rather low general level of interest rates. Inflation-protected bonds, which benefit from falling real interest rates and rising inflation, should continue to perform positively and actively contribute to the enhancement i.e. stabilization of diversified portfolio returns.

Focus on high-grade issuers
Corporations' credit metrics are likely to deteriorate while financial market volatility remains high and the prevailing liquidity shortage recedes only slowly. Credit Suisse's experts are therefore focusing on high-grade issuers in the (semi-)public sector and on agencies in the credits spectrum. Covered bonds with a transparent asset pool and a clear legal framework are also among the recommendations, as are selective debtors in the energy and industrial sectors. Bonds from the financial sector are likely to be exposed to further volatility in the near term, and must be assessed in a differentiated way. In the emerging markets, the fundamental data of many government debtors has improved markedly. Russia and Brazil are among the debtors favored by Credit Suisse analysts. Even if emerging market bonds undergo bouts of widening spreads amid heightened market volatility, long-term investors are likely to view the high yields as attractive by international standards.

http://www.credit-suisse.com/news/en/media_release.jsp?ns=40604

Don't trade so much. Trading too often is the No. 1 killer of investment performance, due to fees and capital gains that reduce profits. The best way to avoid both is to check yourself against other investors and key market indices before you buy or sell to be sure you're making intelligent decisions. Don't forget the past. Examining how your investments performed in the past can help you refine your strategies for the coming year. Review as much of the history of your investments as possible -- it will provide context about how your portfolio has performed over time and lend insight into ways you might alter your investment habits to reap greater returns. Don't talk to Chuck. Don't rely on just one or two people for advice. Tap into multiple, proven parties, not just a single banker or broker, say, but a number of them. Do talk about money. If you know other people who have been successful investors, don't be afraid to discuss money with them, in broad terms that will not reveal your specific investments. A good question to ask is, "What's your asset allocation?" That is, what percentage of your total investments are in stocks, in bonds, in real estate and other broad sectors. Opening up about your investing and inquiring of others about their approach may lead you to information that can change your outlook for the long run. Challenge your adviser. If you've entrusted your financial health to an investment adviser, don't hesitate to ask him or her to share his or her own investment record with you. You can verify it at www.cakefinancial.com, where it's free to create an account that reflects one's real portfolio and trades.

"The reason top-performers in the market share their ideas is that it's not a zero-sum game for investors," says Steve Carpenter, CEO of Cake Financial. "If you buy a stock and the whole world follows your choice, the market for that stock will go up and you'll make more money."

Copyright © 2007 MarketWatch, Inc.

Barings collapsed as it could not meet the enormous trading obligations, which Leeson established in the name of the bank. When it went into receivership on February 27, 1995, Barings had outstanding notional futures positions on Japanese equities and interest rates of US$27 billion: US$7 bn on the Nikkei 225 equity contract and US$20 bn on Japanese government bond (JGB) and Euroyen contracts. Leeson sold 70, 892 Nikkei put and call options with a nominal value of $6.68 bn. The nominal size of these positions is breathtaking; their enormity is all the more astounding when compared with the banks reported capital of about $615 million.

But Leeson's Osaka position reflected only half of his sanctioned trades. If Leeson was long on the OSE, he had to be short twice the number of contracts on SIMEX. Because Leeson's official trading strategy was to take advantage of temporary price differences between the SIMEX and OSE Nikkei 225 contracts. This arbitrage, which Barings called 'switching', required Leeson to buy the cheaper contract and to sell simultaneously the more expensive one, reversing the trade when the price difference had narrowed or disappeared. This kind of arbitrage activity has little market risk as the positions were always matched. But Leeson was not short on SIMEX, infact he was long approximately the number of contracts he was supposed to be short. These were unauthorised trades which he hid in an account named Error Account 88888. He also used this account to execute all his unauthorised trades in Japanese Government Bond and Euroyen futures and Nikkei 225 options: together these trades were so large that they ultimately broke Barings.

The most striking point is the fact that Leeson sold 70,892 Nikkei 225 options worth about $7 bn without the knowledge of Barings London. In industry parlance, Leeson sold straddles. i.e. he sold put and call options with the same strikes and maturities. Leeson earned premium income from selling well over 37,000 straddles over a fourteen month period. Such trades are very profitable provided the Nikkei 225 is trading at the options' strike on expiry date since both the puts and calls would expire worthless. If the Nikkei is trading near the options' strike on expiry, it could still be profitable because the earned premium more than offsets the small loss experienced on either the call (if the Tokyo market had risen) or the put (if the Nikkei had fallen).

The strike prices of most of Leeson's straddle positions ranged from 18,500 to 20,000. He thus needed the Nikkei 225 to continue to trade in its pre-Kobe earthquake range of 19,000 - 20,000 if he was to make money on his option trades. The Kobe earthquake shattered Leeson's options strategy. On the day of the quake, January 17, the Nikkei 225 was at 19,350. It ended that week slightly lower at 18,950 so Leeson's straddle positions started to look shaky. The call options Leeson sold looked worthless but the put options became very valuable to their buyers if the Nikkei continued to decline. Leeson's losses on these puts were unlimited and totally dependent on the level of the Nikkei at expiry, while the profits on the calls were limited to the premium earned.

When the Nikkei dropped 1000 points to 17,950 on January 23, 1995, Leeson found himself showing losses on his two-day old long futures position and facing unlimited damage from selling put options. Leeson, tried single- handedly to reverse the negative post-Kobe sentiment that swamped the Japanese stock market. On 27 January, account '88888' showed a long position of 27,158 March 1995 contracts. Over the next three weeks, Leeson doubled this long position to reach a high on 22nd February of 55,206 March 1995 contracts and 5640 June 1995 contracts.

Leeson was also engaged in unauthorised activities almost when he started trading in Singapore in 1992. He took proprietary positions on SIMEX on both futures and options contracts. Leeson lost money from his unauthorised trades almost from day one. Yet he was perceived in London as the wonder boy and turbo-arbitrageur who single-handedly contributed to half of Barings Singapore's 1993 profits and half of the entire firm's 1994 profits. In 1994 alone, Leeson lost Barings US$296 million; his bosses thought he made them US$46 million, so they proposed paying him a bonus of US$720,000.

How was Leeson able to deceive everyone around him? How was he able to post profits on his 'switching' activity when he was actually losing? The vehicle used to effect this deception was the cross trade. A cross trade is a transaction executed on the floor of an Exchange by just one Member who is both buyer and seller. If a Member has matching buy and sell orders from two different customer accounts for the same contract and at the same price, he is allowed to cross the transaction (execute the deal) by matching both his client accounts. A cross- trade must be executed at market-price. Leeson entered into a significant volume of cross transactions between account '88888' and account '92000' (Barings Securities Japan - Nikkei and JGB Arbitrage), account '98007' (Barings London - JGB Arbitrage) and account '98008' (Barings London - Euroyen Arbitrage).

After executing these cross-trades, Leeson instructed the settlements staff to break down the total number of contracts into several different trades, and to change the trade prices thereon to cause profits to be credited to 'switching' accounts referred to above and losses to be charged to account '88888'. Thus while the cross trades on the Exchange appeared on the face of it to be genuine and within the rules of the Exchange, the books and records of BFS, maintained in the Contac system, a settlement system used extensively by SIMEX members, reflected pairs of transactions adding up to the same number of lots at prices bearing no relation to those executed on the floor.

The bottom line of all these cross-trades was that Barings was counterparty to many of its own trades. Leeson bought from one hand and sold to the other, and in so doing did not lay off any of the firm's market risk. Barings was thus not arbitraging between SIMEX and the Japanese exchanges but taking open (and very substantial) positions, which were buried in account '88888'. It was the profit and loss statement of this account which correctly represented the revenue earned (or not earned) by Leeson. Details of this account were never transmitted to the treasury or risk control offices in London, an omission which ultimately had catastrophic consequences for Barings shareholders and bondholders.

The management of Barings broke a cardinal rule of any trading operation - they effectively let Leeson settle his own trades by putting him in charge of both the dealing desk and the back office. This is tantamount to allowing the person who works a cash-till to bank in the day's takings without an independent third party checking whether the amount banked it at the end of the day reconciles with the till receipts.

The back-office records, confirms and settles trades transacted by the front office, reconciles them with details sent by the bank's counterparties and assesses the accuracy of prices used for its internal valuations. It also accepts/releases securities and payments for trades. Some back offices also provide the regulatory reports and management accounting. In a nutshell, the back office provides the necessary checks to prevent unauthorised trading and minimise the potential for fraud and embezzlement. Since Leeson was in charge of the back office, he had the final say on payments, ingoing and outgoing confirmations and contracts, reconciliation statements, accounting entries and position reports. Thus Leeson was considered perfectly placed to relay false information back to London.

Source: http://www.karvy.com/articles/baringsdebacle.htm

This is a sign of an economic slowdown - lower inflation is forcing long bonds rates down but Fed induced short rates are coming down quicker in order to stimulate the economy. This is Bullish for Gold as it causes speculators to borrow short and lend long i.e. the money supply increases.

* Credit Spreads have continued to widen. So much for rate cuts supporting the market. Widening Credit Spreads are an indication of a flight to quality. Investors are moving to the safety of Government Bonds and away from lower rated debt e.g. Corporate and Mortgage paper. A flight to safety is good for Gold.



Figure 2 - Credit Spreads as measured by the performance of treasury vs. investment bonds have widened significantly

* And finally Gold has trumped industrial metals indicating a slowdown is benefiting Gold over economically sensitive industrial metals.



Figure 3 - Gold outperforms against economically sensitive industrial metals during a slowdown

So what’s wrong? If the indicators are so bullish, why the sell off in Gold Stocks?

Gold Stocks are stocks after all and will be impacted by the general market sell off. However, the main reason behind the sell off is a stronger Dollar. The Gold market is grappling with the fact that lower foreign interest rates are causing the US Dollar to rally.

We are of the opinion that the US Dollar is in a long term Bear market. It is politically acceptable to let the Dollar fall and keep the stock market levitated rather than visa-versa. As we’ve seen over the months, a falling Dollar has supported asset markets (including Gold) through lower interest rates. That said, based on the monthly picture and our Fibonacci projections, we think the current down leg in the Dollar has further to go.



Figure 4 - US Dollar index (monthly) more downside after a brief rebound

Based on our Fibonacci projections we feel the Dollar will rebound to resistance at 80 and then reverse lower to make an intermediate low of 65 towards the end of 2008.

Gold Stocks and the stock market will struggle for the rest of the year (New York Stock Exchange on the Edge) as the Dollar rallies. Then, sometime in January, Gold Stocks will lift off the floor along with the Stock market and begin discounting the next down leg in the Dollar (probably before the Dollar makes its correction high of 80).

When the Dollar finally makes new lows Gold Stocks particularly the Juniors will be flying!

Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA
greg@goldandoilstocks.com
December 16, 2007

Source: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/silberman121607.html

"Given this background, the numbers will indeed be weaker than in our latest World Economic Outlook," IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson told Switzerland's Finanz und Wirtschaft business newspaper in an interview on Saturday.

The IMF already lowered the forecasts from its July World Economic Outlook in October.

But the numbers would in all likelihood have to be revised down again at the Fund's next update in January, when it gives a preview of its April official forecasts. "We will not be able to stick to 1.9 percent 2008 Gross Domestic Product growth for the United States, nor to 2.1 percent for Europe," Johnson said.

"By how much we will have to lower our GDP forecasts, we will know in January," he said.

The Fund already warned in November the global economic growth outlook had dimmed, because of a troublesome mix of tigher credit terms and rising energy prices.

The U.S. dollar remained overvalued despite its continued drop since 2002, Johnson said, which could be an obstacle for the U.S. trade deficit to gradually diminish.

Too high oil prices and the undervalued Chinese currency boosting exports in U.S. trading partners formed the other side of the trade imbalance equation, Johnson said.

The Chinese yuan -- which the West has often said is held articially low by the government -- was the biggest problem and oil prices should ideally come down to between $60 and $70 a barrel, from prices above $90 now.

"Oil prices are having an impact on short-term inflation expectations in particular, and could lead the U.S. central bank to be less inclined to lower interest rates further," he said.

The IMF did not have a foreign exchange target in mind for the greenback, but it should fall even further despite its persistent decline, to help diminish the U.S. trade deficit and the chance of disorderly currency movements. (Reporting by Douwe Miedema)

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