Bulls in Retreat as Indices Fail to Follow Through
March 20, 2008
Thu, Mar 20 2008, 09:49 GMT
by Harry Boxer
The Technical Trader(TheTechTrader.com)
The indices started off well enough but ended extremely negatively at the lows for the day going away. The day started out with a little bit of a gap up. They ran to new rally highs, then pulled back sharply but held initial support at the intraday moving averages, and then rallied back to try to take out the high point. When that failed, they rolled over and sold off for the rest of the day, although they did have a mid-afternoon rally try that failed once again at lateral, price and declining moving average resistance. The last hour in particular was extremely negative, and the angle of descent was even sharper to the downside.
The Dow closed just below 12,100, down 293. The S&P 500 fell 32.32, the Nasdaq 100 45.46, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) down 15.
The technicals were quite negative with declines leading advances by 22 to 9 on New York and by 21 to 9 on Nasdaq. The up/down volume was even worse, 5 to 1 negative on New York with 1.875 billion traded. Nasdaq traded about 2.25 billion and had a 6 1/2 to 1 negative ratio.
TheTechTrader.com board, as you can imagine, was extremely negative with nearly all stocks down today, except for a couple standout issues. Portfolio position Macroshares Oil Down Tradeable Trust,(DCR) closed at 10.60, up 1.16 today, a strong percentage gain on the sharp drop in the price of oil today, which was down over $5 per barrel.
MF Financial gained 1.19 on 16 1/2 million shares, although that was more than a point off the high. Still, it was a very strong gain on a day like this. Chart of the Week Georesources (GEOI) at 12.48 was up 17 cents.
But most other stocks were down on my board today. Leading the way was LEH down 4.26, DryShips (DRYS) 4.38, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) 3.46, and Boxer Short Deckers Outdoor (DECK) down 5.22.
In addition, Ascent Solar (ASTI) got hammered to 8 1/2 today, down 1.85, after announcing a secondary. Cree Inc.(CREE) lost 1.22, Converted Organics (COIN) 1.20, China Natural Resources (CHNR) 1.68, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) down 1.85, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.19, Excel Maritime (EXM) 2.16, TBS International (TBSI) 2.46. Sigma Designs (SIGM) dropped 1.36, and JA Solar (JASO) 1.13 in the continuing weak solar sector. Global Solutions (GSOL) was down 1.36.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices had one strong snapback rally in the morning, but after that one failed they sold off steadily all day to close at the lows for the day going away. The OEX S&P options had a big day today. For example, the March 620 OEX put (OEYOD) closed at 15.30, up 9 today.
So, with the indices closing right near key support levels in the NDX 1715-18 zone and just above the 1296-98 zone on the S&P 500, we have a key test coming tomorrow morning and probably early on. But today was a very poor follow-up to a very impressive day yesterday and obviously does not bode well for the bulls.
Good trading!
by Harry Boxer
The Technical Trader(TheTechTrader.com)
The indices started off well enough but ended extremely negatively at the lows for the day going away. The day started out with a little bit of a gap up. They ran to new rally highs, then pulled back sharply but held initial support at the intraday moving averages, and then rallied back to try to take out the high point. When that failed, they rolled over and sold off for the rest of the day, although they did have a mid-afternoon rally try that failed once again at lateral, price and declining moving average resistance. The last hour in particular was extremely negative, and the angle of descent was even sharper to the downside.
The Dow closed just below 12,100, down 293. The S&P 500 fell 32.32, the Nasdaq 100 45.46, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) down 15.
The technicals were quite negative with declines leading advances by 22 to 9 on New York and by 21 to 9 on Nasdaq. The up/down volume was even worse, 5 to 1 negative on New York with 1.875 billion traded. Nasdaq traded about 2.25 billion and had a 6 1/2 to 1 negative ratio.
TheTechTrader.com board, as you can imagine, was extremely negative with nearly all stocks down today, except for a couple standout issues. Portfolio position Macroshares Oil Down Tradeable Trust,(DCR) closed at 10.60, up 1.16 today, a strong percentage gain on the sharp drop in the price of oil today, which was down over $5 per barrel.
MF Financial gained 1.19 on 16 1/2 million shares, although that was more than a point off the high. Still, it was a very strong gain on a day like this. Chart of the Week Georesources (GEOI) at 12.48 was up 17 cents.
But most other stocks were down on my board today. Leading the way was LEH down 4.26, DryShips (DRYS) 4.38, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) 3.46, and Boxer Short Deckers Outdoor (DECK) down 5.22.
In addition, Ascent Solar (ASTI) got hammered to 8 1/2 today, down 1.85, after announcing a secondary. Cree Inc.(CREE) lost 1.22, Converted Organics (COIN) 1.20, China Natural Resources (CHNR) 1.68, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) down 1.85, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.19, Excel Maritime (EXM) 2.16, TBS International (TBSI) 2.46. Sigma Designs (SIGM) dropped 1.36, and JA Solar (JASO) 1.13 in the continuing weak solar sector. Global Solutions (GSOL) was down 1.36.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices had one strong snapback rally in the morning, but after that one failed they sold off steadily all day to close at the lows for the day going away. The OEX S&P options had a big day today. For example, the March 620 OEX put (OEYOD) closed at 15.30, up 9 today.
So, with the indices closing right near key support levels in the NDX 1715-18 zone and just above the 1296-98 zone on the S&P 500, we have a key test coming tomorrow morning and probably early on. But today was a very poor follow-up to a very impressive day yesterday and obviously does not bode well for the bulls.
Good trading!
Labels: Markets, Technical Analysis
